I recently co-authored an analysis article with Yue Hu and Prof. Dan Work on how vehicle travel times could increase if transit riders switch modes and drive instead, due to Covid-19 concerns. The analysis used data from the American Community Survey across all major US metro areas and showed large susceptibility in transit-heavy cities – modest mode switch from transit to personal vehicles could increase all road users’ travel times by 5-10 minutes each way.
While very small travel time increases (e.g., less than 5 minutes one-way) may not seem concerning, this could equate to hundreds of thousands of additional hours spent in traffic each day and unnecessary emissions and pollution. It certainly highlights the importance of transit in major cities to keep vehicle volumes at manageable levels.
Read the article here on Medium.